Step B - Goals and Assumptions presents another difficulty. To set goals realistically, you need to figure:
GOALS:
1. when you want to retire,
2. what your expenses are likely to be (don't forget travel, hobbies, kids, grandkids, medical expenses, and long-term care costs).
A rule of thumb used to be that you need 60%-80% of your current income to maintain the same lifestyle in retirement. Many planners are now suggesting a higher percentage, due to a variety of factors: retirees are more active (spend more money) than in previous generations, medical inflation rates continue to outpace general inflation rates, and long term care needs are not anticipated to be met by family or the government.
And look in your crystal ball to foresee:
ASSUMPTIONS:
3. how long you (and your spouse) will live in retirement,
4. how much your investments will earn,
5. what inflation will be.
Be careful, unrealistic assumptions will usually yield wacky results. Most planners use conservative assumptions based on long-term historical rates. For example, they might use 4% as an assumption for the annual inflation rate, 10% as the investment return for stocks, and 6% investment returns for bonds. These assumptions work O.K. for long-range planning, but they are nearly worthless for time horizons of under a5 years. The longer the period which is being estimated, the more accurate these assumptions can be expected to turn out. If your estimates produce unrealistic results, go back and review your assumptions.